Nandu Nathanael Singh, 48, was reading a chapter from the Bible at a prayer meeting with 25 other Christians when he heard blood-curdling chants of “Bring the traitor out”.
A mob of right-wing Hindu activists had gathered outside his home in Jodhikapur village, Uttar Pradesh district in protest against alleged “forced conversions” of Hindus. Among the slogans they were chanting were “free India of Christian priests” – and they were accompanied by the police.
Within hours, Mr Singh and his wife Savita had been arrested and charged with unlawful conversion, criminal intimidation and intentionally insulting religion. They deny all charges.
After being held for five months, they were finally released two weeks ago. But Christians in India’s most populous and politically important state fear that such incidents will become more frequent after the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) expected win in key local polls, due to be announced on Thursday. Some have even warned the historic community may face “extermination”.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Hindu nationalist party and its allies are expected to secure anywhere up to 277 seats out of 403 in the state, a comfortable majority, according to recent polls. The election is expected to be a barometer for the national political mood amid deepening sectarian divisions.
Holding onto Uttar Pradesh, India’s most politically important state, would boost Mr Modi’s hopes of winning a third straight term office in the 2024 general election and bolster his image as the country’s most popular politician in decades.
It would also be seen as a seal of approval for his Hindu nationalist party’s unabashed anti-minority stance, including an unofficial crackdown on Christians.
“A Hindu leader has already threatened us that they are waiting for the election results and after that they will exterminate Christians from Uttar Pradesh,” said Emanuel, Singh’s eldest son.
“The return of the BJP to power means more trouble for us. With the BJP in power, the attacks on Christians will increase in the next five years,” he added. “We are worried because they hate our faith, our religion. The BJP government doesn’t tolerate any other faith except Hindu.”
India boasts a 28-million-strong Christian community that dates back to 52 AD. But since 2014, when Mr Modi was first elected, attacks against Christians have spiked.
The Alliance Defending Freedom, a Christian non-profit based in the United States, has noted a 220 per cent increase since 2014. India was ranked as the tenth most dangerous country in the world for Christians in 2022 by Open Doors International. It was outside the top 30 when Mr Modi was first elected.
One of the most common accusations is that Christians are forcibly converting Hindus with bribes and creating “demographic changes”, suspicions that led to the Singhs arrest. But evidence is usually thin on the ground.
“These are false allegations. Hundreds of cases have been filed against Christians on charges of forced conversion in India but all of them have been acquitted by the courts,” said Akhilesh Edger, a Christian leader in the central state of Chhattisgarh.
Mob justice of the sort the Singhs faced is the usual outcome. Last year alone, there were 486 violent incidents reported by the United Christian Forum, a nationwide volunteer and activist group.
By far the highest number of attacks – 66 – was reported in Uttar Pradesh, which is ruled by the saffron robe-clad Yogi Adityanath, a firebrand Hindu monk known for his hate speech.
He has previously said Muslims should have stayed in Pakistan after partition and accused Mother Teresa of “a conspiracy to Christianise India”.
Under him, public hostility towards minorities including the northern state’s nearly 400,000 Christians has grown.
On Christmas Eve, for example, right-wing Hindu activists attacked a gathering in Agra and burnt an effigy of Santa Claus, while in Varanasi, protesters gathered outside a multi-faith prayer meeting and shouted anti-Christian slogans.
In the run up to the election, there has also been a growing crackdown on priests, who are seen as a key part of the local BJP opposition movement.
The idea is to “stop them influencing the voting against the ruling BJP,” said Emanuel Singh. “Most of the Christians are loyal to [opposition leader Akhilesh Yadav] and vote against the BJP because of their hatred towards the minorities.”
Some priests have responded by shifting to online prayers. But for ordinary Christians, it’s hard to know what else they can do to stay safe.
Just a month ago, 21 Christian families were reportedly forced to flee a village in Uttar Pradesh due to harassment, according to Emanuel.
“These attacks are meant to scare minorities and create a division,” Emanuel said.
He feared it was a trend that would play out across the country in the coming years.
“There is a tendency among the right-wing Hindu activists that they want to create an image of being strong, muscular Hindu leaders to get noticed and rewarded by the BJP,” he said. “The more divisive you are, the better chance you have of getting on the BJP ticket to fight elections.”
This article first appeared on telegraph.co.uk