While India’s Muslim population grew faster than the Hindu population between 1991 and 2001 and then between 2001 and 2011, the pace of growth declined more dramatically for Muslims than Hindus over these two decades, census data shows.
Indeed, of all major religious communities in the country, the smallest decline in population growth between these two decades was in the case of Hindus while smaller groups such as Jains and Buddhists saw the sharpest drops.
The 1991 census did not cover Jammu & Kashmir and therefore, growth rates have to be calculated excluding the erstwhile state, now split into two Union Territories.
The decline in Hindu population growth was by 3.1 percentage points from 19.9% to 16.8%, the only major group for which the slowdown was less than the national average. Muslim population growth dropped by 4.7 percentage points from 29.3% to 24.6%, while the Christian, Sikh, Buddhist and Jain population groups saw even larger declines.
Experts agree that economic class and education levels, particularly of the mother, are the biggest determinants of fertility and hence population growth. Religion is at best a minor factor. This also explains why the population of Muslims in, say, Kerala, grew by a much smaller percentage than the population of Hindus in Bihar or Uttar Pradesh.